Crude Oil Rises a Fourth Day on OPEC Plan, Cold U.S. Weather

Crude oil rose for a fourth day, trading above $60 a barrel, on speculation OPEC members will agree at a meeting this week to cut production and as cold weather in the U.S. Northeast raises heating demand.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will discuss on Oct. 19 a plan to lower output by 1 million barrels a day, oil ministers including Qatar’s Abdullah bin Hamad al- Attiyah said. The Buffalo, New York, area was blanketed under a record-setting 2 feet of snow, knocking out power to more than a quarter-million residents on Oct. 13.

“OPEC is considering cuts and that has been supportive, leading to buying from funds that have already liquidated their previous positions,” said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures Ltd. in Tokyo.

Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as 31 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $60.25 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $60.16 at 10:13 a.m. Singapore time. Prices have rebounded from a 10 month-low of $57.22 on Oct. 12.

Yesterday, the contact gained $1.37, or 2.3 percent, to close at $59.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the first three-session gain since Aug. 22.

“Lower temperatures in the U.S. and the heating demand are pulling up oil prices,” said Kazuhiko Saito, a commodity strategist at Interes Capital Management in Tokyo.

Quota, Production

Brent crude oil for December settlement rose as much as 34 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $62 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange.

OPEC members will meet in Doha, Qatar, to discuss a proposal to cut 1 million barrels a day from actual production, Al-Attiyah said yesterday in a phone interview. Members have agreed to cut output to stem a decline in prices, Algeria’s oil minister, Chakib Khelil, said in a report yesterday in El Moudjahid, Algeria’s state-run newspaper.

Crude oil has fallen 23 percent from an all-time high of $78.40 a barrel reached on July 14.

“At some point OPEC is going to succeed at getting some kind of cut on the table,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. “Since it’s going to come at a time when demand is up on a seasonal basis, it should succeed in lifting prices.”

The group’s 10 members with quotas pumped 27.6 million barrels a day last month, according to Bloomberg News estimates. OPEC’s official production target, which excludes Iraq’s output, is 28 million barrels a day.

“Whether they cut from actual production will be key,” said Mitsui Bussan Futures’ Emori.

Heating Demand

OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world’s oil, lowered its forecast for world oil consumption to 84.2 million barrels a day, down 160,000 barrels a day from its previous forecast a month ago, citing slowing global economic growth. The group cut its estimate for 2006 demand for OPEC crude by 200,000 barrels a day to 28.7 million barrels a day.

The OPEC crude oil basket price rose 71 cents to $54.90 a barrel on Oct. 13, the latest available data on the group’s Web site. The daily price index is a weighted average of 11 crude blends produced by OPEC states.

Demand for heat in the Northeast, the biggest region where heating oil is burned in furnaces, will peak at 32 percent above normal today, according to Belton, Missouri-based forecaster Weather Derivatives. Cold and snow from the Midwest to northwestern New York state may have reduced heating oil stocks last week.

November heating-oil futures gained 0.55 cent, or 0.3 percent, to $1.7620 a gallon at 8:49 a.m. Singapore time.

U.S. crude inventories rose above seasonal averages after the summer driving season finished and Gulf of Mexico refinery production was not disrupted by hurricanes this year.

Oil stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer, jumped 2.41 million barrels to 330.5 million in the week ended Oct. 6, according to an Energy Department report.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hector Forster in Tokyo at hforster@bloomberg.net .


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