Metals – Copper still down on concerns China may raise rates to cool economy
April 19th, 2007
Copper continued lower in early afternoon trade, still weighed down by a slump in Asian equities that was triggered by concerns China might raise interest rates to cool its overheating economy.
The metal was off its day lows, however, as traders took the view the equities downturn in Asia will not spill over onto global markets as it did in February.
Falls were also limited by supply disruptions in Indonesia.
LME copper for 3 month delivery was quoted at 7,911 usd a tonne in early afternoon floor trades on the LME floor, down from the kerb close of 7,980 usd a tonne yesterday but off a day low of 7,770 usd a tonne.
“After this morning’s little shakeout, the complex has rallied and is showing mixed for the day,” said Alex Heath, head of base metals at RBC Capital Markets.
He said this is because today’s retreat in Asian equities is unlikely to spill over onto global equity markets as it did in February, when markets were in any case vulnerable because of concerns about the US housing market.
The Chinese data released earlier showed the economy grew by 11.1 pct in the first quarter. The rise was ahead of market expectations. The data also showed the consumer price index rose 2.7 pct year-on-year in the same period.
Last year the CPI, the chief barometer of inflation, rose 1.2 pct in the first quarter.
“We expect price volatility over the next few days as the market responds to China fears but we don’t believe that this is a trigger for more widespread macro concerns,” said UBS Investment Bank analyst Robin Bhar.
He advised clients to “use this weakness to buy as we see prices higher over the coming weeks”.
Separately, falls in copper were limited as traders tracked developments at Free-port-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, where workers yesterday began a protest rally to demand better wages and welfare.
News reports out in Asia earlier quoted the country’s energy minister as saying the mine was still running, but well below capacity. Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines.
Analysts said the market was not rallying on the Grasberg news because it had already been priced in on Tuesday, when copper shot up to a 7 month high on expected supply disruptions at Grasberg.
Tin was up, recovering from a fall of 7.7 pct yesterday, which was sparked by news Indonesia has approved export permits to two more smelters, including PT Koba Tin, the country’s second largest producer.
The news indicated supply from Indonesia, the world’s second largest tin producer, is recovering after having been disrupted for much of this year because of a government crackdown on illegal tin mining.
In morning trades yesterday, tin hit a 25-year-high of 15,100 usd a tonne.
Tin was quoted up at 13,849 usd a tonne in early afternoon floor trades, against a kerb close of 13,700 usd yesterday.
Nickel was also up, trading at 48,195 usd a tonne against 47,900 usd, after stocks of the metal resumed their downtrend on the LME, falling by 192 tonnes to 4,266 tonnes.
Aluminium was down at 2,847 usd a tonne against 2,878 usd after LME inventories surged by 11,950 tonnes to 822,425 tonnes.
Lead was up at 1,995 usd a tonne against 1,980 usd a tonne, while zinc was down at 3,622 usd a tonne against 3,680 usd. maytaal.angel@thomson.com ma/har/cml
Copyright AFX News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.
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