Crude oil rose, nearing a five-week high, after an unexpected decline in U.S. crude supplies and on speculation that OPEC will resist calls to pump more oil.

Oil stockpiles dropped by 3.97 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Department reported yesterday, the eighth decline in nine weeks and almost twice as much as analysts had estimated. Five members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have said the group’s meeting next week should leave output unchanged.

“OPEC’s position is they say they wouldn’t move production to the upside, so the market considers there’ll be a huge stock draw in the fourth quarter,” said Thierry Lefrancois, an energy analyst at Natixis in Paris. “Where are we going to find the extra oil?”

Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 43 cents or 0.6 percent to $76.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest intraday price since Aug. 3, and traded for $76.66 at 12:40 p.m. London time. It reached $76.30 yesterday, the highest close since Aug. 2.

Brent crude for October advanced 18 cents to $74.95 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange at 12:41 p.m., after gaining 43 cents, or 0.6 percent, yesterday.

New York prices rose as much as 2.2 percent to $77.43 yesterday before the Energy Department’s inventory report, after the U.S. warned of increased risk of a terrorist attack on Nigerian oil facilities.

OPEC’s Position

Oil ministers for Algeria, Iran, Libya, Qatar and Venezuela said in the past week they support keeping the group’s total quota at 25.845 million barrels a day until December. OPEC President Mohamed al-Hamli, who is also the United Arab Emirates oil minister, said yesterday markets are “adequately supplied.”

Crude oil stockpiles dropped 3.97 million barrels, the Energy Department reported yesterday, the eighth decline in nine weeks and almost twice as much as analysts had estimated. Gasoline fell 1.5 million barrels to 191.1 million, the lowest since September 2005. Heating oil rose 1.2 million barrels to 40.6 million, 28 percent below the five-year average for the period.

Crude is nearing the $78.77 record set Aug. 1. It’s gained 8 percent in two weeks as hurricane activity intensified and central banks allayed concerns that loan defaults in the U.S. will derail global economic growth.

“There’s a very good chance of breaking higher on the inventory trends,” said Eugen Weinberg, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. A move to $80 is possible, because a an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at its Sept. 18 review would make oil attractive as a hedging tool against inflation, he said.

The collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market has pushed up the cost of credit and sparked concerns that a slowdown in economic growth will slash oil consumption worldwide.

“We’re still very uncomfortable on the financial market situation,” said Michael Davies, an analyst at commodity brokers Sucden (U.K.) Ltd. in London. “It will probably have a more detrimental affect on the global economy.”

Twelve of 31 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 39 percent, said prices would decline next week. Eleven, or 35 percent, said oil would be little changed and eight predicted a rise.

U.S. refineries raised operating capacity to 92.1 percent last week from a seven-week low of 90.3 percent a week earlier, according to the Energy Department.

“Going into the heating oil season in approximately three months from now supplies are somewhat tight here in the U.S.,” said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Florida. “With capacity above 92 percent we should be able to meet heating oil needs and prices should stay well under control.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

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