China Coal is likely to miss out on inclusion in the Hang Seng index, leaving the Hong Kong benchmark unchanged in the first quarter, analysts said Monday.

As a result of its initial public offering in Shanghai at the start of the month, China Coal has no unlisted share capital, a prerequisite for entry into the Hang Seng.

With a market value of about 210 billion Hong Kong dollars, or $26.92 billion, China Coal ranks 54th by 12-month average market capitalization, according to BNP Paribas, making it a long shot for inclusion in the index.

The index, with a maximum limit of 50 constituents, now has 43 constituents. HSI Services, which compiles Hong Kong’s stock indexes, is expected to announce the results of its first quarterly review this year on Friday. HSI Services bases its criteria on market capitalization, trading turnover and the proportion of a company’s shares that are freely traded.

“There are no big counters that qualify at the moment,” said Ernie Hon, an analyst at ICEA Securities.

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