China’s iron ore imports rose 6.2% on month in November to 32.52 million metric tons, but analysts say that is merely a blip in contractual deliveries and some stockpiling at mills.

Signaling the continuation of faltering demand in China’s real estate and export sectors, November ore imports fell 7.9% on year, according to General Administration of Customs data released Monday.

The unexpected reversal of the bearish trend in China’s iron ore imports in on-month figures is likely because of contract fulfillment rather than brighter fundamentals, said Standard Chartered economist Judy Zhu.

Brazil’s iron ore exports to China rose about 20% in November to 9.05 million tons from 7.58 million tons in October.

The surge could be Brazil’s Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) resuming some contractual ore shipments after ending a two-month standoff last month with Chinese industry over ore price hikes, Zhu said.

Vale’s director of investor relations said earlier this month that Chinese spot prices of iron ore and steel have stopped falling, adding that Vale was in a good position to leverage on China’s continued longer-term growth.

But ore imports could continue to pick up as steel mills take advantage of cheaper prices to restock.

Ore orders from Australia have also been rising in recent weeks, according to the Baltic Dry Exchange Index.

“Australian iron ore export orders have been increasing in the past few weeks, which has positively driven up Capesize freight in the past few days,” said Standard Chartered’s Zhu.

“There seem to be more orders (from Chinese mills) being fulfilled by (Australian ore producers) Rio Tinto (RTP) and BHP Billiton (BHP).”

Iron ore stocks at Chinese ports and warehouses hit a high of 89 million tons in October but have been declining in recent weeks, said Zhu.

They now total about 65 million tons, she said, while noting that “inventory is still pretty high.”

But the gains in ore imports don’t reflect a recovery in fundamentals, she said.

“The story should be quite downbeat, though with some pickup in iron ore imports,” she said. “But it’s not sustainable, given production cuts by mills, which means China does not need that much (iron ore) imports if the economy is not rebounding. Shrinking imports should continue for another few months.”

Ore imports in November were markedly slower than a 24% rise in November last year.

Between January and November, imports totaled 409.13 million tons, up 17.3%.

In the same period last year, imports were up 17% at 349.03 million tons.

China is one of the world’s biggest importers of iron ore, securing most of its supplies from Australia, Brazil and India.

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