Analyst Opinion Coal Mine Production and Prices May Slump in June
May 10th, 2009
The last 15 days, coal stock at Qinhuangdao port, China’s major coal port, has remained at 3.6 million tonnes down by 4.4 million tonnes compared with the highest 8 million tonnes of the year. At present time when coal stock has come down and coal price rises at a slow pace, some new voice is heard coal experts claim that imported coal price may slump in Jun, when domestic coal market may be further impacted.
Analysts said “Thermal coal price has been stable now. On May 6th the exit price of thermal coal with 5,500 calorie per kilogram at Qinhuangdao port stayed at CNY 590 per tonne while the ex-mine price of the same quality of coal remained at around CNY 300 per tonne.
Mr Li Xuegang the Vice General Director of China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association said the absence of a big rise of coal price is resulted from the fact China’s major power groups have increased their purchase of overseas coal. As China’s six major power groups failed to come to agreements with coal enterprises, power groups have been obtaining coal resources in terms of advance payment and spot transaction over the past four months. But what has made a difference is that they have been earnestly importing coal from abroad. China Huaneng Group plans to import 5 million tonnes of overseas coal, Zheneng Group is to buy 1 million tonnes of coal and other power groups such as Datang Group and China Huadian Corporation etc have entered negotiation of coal imports.
It is predicted that coal import volume may set a record this year with it is predicted to reach 60 million tonnes accounting for 7% to 8% of coal flowing to China’s coastal areas. As large amount of coal flowing into China from abroad, China’s domestic coal market is bound to be impacted, and coal price may also bear the brunt.
Experts also express that as China stays in a relatively favorable state right now, coal exporters around the world have all focused their attention on China. But at present not many deals are made, for imported coal become not-so competitive plus the transportation price. Generally speaking, global coal exporters will cut their export price by a large range in June and at that time domestic coal price is bound to be impacted.
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